Gentlemen, here's the deal.
As with all things, new things have more value than older ones, this is especially true in tf2 where no matter how bad or ridiculous a hat is, if it's new, it's extremely valuable.
However, there is another variable: Crates.
Currently, the new hats are more valuable. However, all the "polycount" hats, with the exception of the ones for sets, are common drops in crates, VERY common.
The pyro's new hats went from trading for 3 hats to not even being worth 1 in 2 days.
Is it because they're ugly? not really, other classes have way uglier hats and those are retaining value for now. It's mostly because of those people who have way too much money and are opening tons of crates.
There are many of these rich spoiled asshats, and they quickly and drastically lower the value of hats obtainable via crates.
The hats in crate series #2 (Sober Stuntman, Pugilist's Protector, Chieftain's Challenge) are already starting to drop in value.
Be smart guys, if u get a polycount hat and you're not planning to keep it, TRADE IT AS FAST AS YOU CAN.
In time, the economy is gonna reverse itself and older hats will actually b the valuable ones.
On a last note, and sane person will tell you all the "unusual hats" look retarded, and make it extra hard to play.
Seriously i was on a server with a pyro that had the brigade helm with some flame/glow effect. He barely did anything cause he's an AMBUSH CLASS and everyone saw him coming a mile away at all times.
These are just giant "SHOOT ME IN THE FACE HARD!" beacons.
Edit: Stat page for TF2 hats, I've been checking this page and been trading shitloads over the past week (in normal maps, trading servers, TF2store, TF2items and steam's TF2 trade forum). that's where I'm drawing my conclusions from.
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